Geopolitics: The Art of Mapping the Future

October 9, 2015


Peter Zeihan, author of “The Accidental Superpower” and upcoming Lecture Luncheon speaker (October 16th) doesn’t need a crystal ball to know the future of our world. Instead, he uses readily-available scientific data to analyze the implications and trends for the U.S., Europe, Russia, China, and other countries. By analyzing such information as population aging demographics, history, cultural norms, and geographical features, he has been able to project likely events occurring over the next fifteen to twenty-five years.

In his analysis, America will fare extremely well in the near future but many other seemingly stable countries around the world are on the road to failure. Part of the reason for this has to do with the Bretton Woods agreement at the end of WWII in 1944-45 in which America (then obsessed with cold war objectives) pledged to safeguard free trade for countries around the world. This created the world we know today, where countries formerly occupied with skirmishing over shipping routes with their neighbors, were able to change their concentration to rebuilding and trade. Major exporters such as China and Germany are dependent on this kind of protected shipping.

However, with the advent of near self-sufficiency in oil production (due in part to America’s recent shale boom) and the end of the past cold war, the objectives of the U.S. have changed. American withdrawal from continuing to carry out the very-expensive protection of the world’s free-trade routes is already happening, and when full withdrawal occurs, Zeihan believes there will be a domino effect for many countries.

Some of his most unexpected predictions include:

  • Alberta, and the other Canadian provinces will become U.S. states.
  • Germany will be on the rise again in Europe.
  • Industrial collapse, and economic depressions are ahead for countries like Russia, Japan, and China.
  • Wars will begin to fight over formerly-protected shipping lanes. There will be wars for necessary resources.

America should not be involved in these wars, according to Zeihan. The reason is that America is blessed with excellent geography, near self-sufficiency in oil/shale, and has an open immigration policy that attracts young families who will continue to contribute to the economy. While other countries will have to fight wars for necessary resources denied by their geography, America will not need to do so. In fact, one of Zeihan’s most interesting predictions is that the biggest danger to the future U.S. is not terrorism, but the Mexican drug war run by cartels which has already infiltrated major cities in America, and which is likely to grow far worse.

The lecture luncheon featuring Peter Zeihan as speaker will take place Friday, October 16th, from 11:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. For more information, or to register, click here.